Economist - Scenarios & Macro Modelling

2 months ago

UK, UK, United Kingdom Oxford Economics Full time

Oxford Economics, a leading global economic research and consultancy firm, is looking for an Economist as part of our expanding Macroeconomic Modelling and Scenarios team. The position will be based in our London or Oxford office.


The team is responsible for developing bespoke scenarios for a variety of purposes such as strategic planning or stress testing; and supports financial sector clients with bespoke asset return modelling to inform their asset allocation strategies. We also lead the company’s research around the macroeconomic impacts of climate change. Most of the team’s projects involve working with the Oxford Economics' Global Economic Model (GEM), the most widely used commercial large-scale macroeconomic model in the world.


What does the team do?

The team is responsible for:

  • The Global Scenario Service (GSS) which uses scenario analysis to explore the implications of key risks to the world economy such as the cost of living crisis or a sell-off in asset prices;
  • The Global Climate Service (GCS) which includes producing regular research briefings and analysis on climate-related issues (e.g. the economic cost of global warming) and developing climate scenarios covering a wide range of potential risks.
  • A long-term scenario service that seeks to understand the impact of key themes such as demographics, artificial intelligence, and geopolitical tensions across a range of macroeconomic and financial indicators;
  • Developing bespoke scenarios for a variety of purposes such as strategic or business planning, policy design, regulatory stress tests, and to inform portfolio allocation decisions;
  • Writing bespoke research reports for our clients (e.g. the economic outlook, impact of climate policies, risk outlook);
  • Generating statistical scenarios designed for IFRS 9 and CECL accounting standards; and
  • Improving the properties of the GEM, with recent additions including an enhancement of financial sector modelling (e.g. equities, government bond yields, credit spreads) as well as climate policy levers.


Key Responsibilities

An Economist in the Macroeconomic Modelling and Scenarios team will take on a range of tasks that include:

  • Working with the GEM, the most widely used commercial large-scale macroeconomic model in the world, to produce regulatory stress tests and economic scenarios for a variety of end-uses;
  • Writing up scenarios or economic research under one of our subscription services – GCS/ GSS/long-run scenarios - or for consultancy projects;
  • Developing bespoke models and forecasts for our clients, to support with their business planning or asset allocation decisions;
  • Giving overview presentations to prospects about the GEM, the team’s subscription-based products and our wider scenarios and modelling capabilities;
  • Contributing and implementing ideas that will improve the GEM; and
  • Managing client queries regarding our modelling and scenario analysis.


Skills & Experience

Essential:

  • Around 1-2 years of work experience as an economist or a related field.
  • A strong education in Economics to at least an undergraduate level. A postgraduate degree in Economics is highly desirable.
  • Ability to demonstrate a good understanding of current economic and policy challenges facing the global economy.
  • Excellent analytical and quantitative skills.
  • Excellent written and verbal communication, with the ability to explain economic concepts to a diverse audience, including non-specialists.
  • Ability to work effectively in teams across different offices and to tight deadlines.

Desirable:

  • Previous experience in using applied macroeconomic models for forecasting and/or scenario analysis.
  • Knowledge of statistical modelling software (such as Python, R and/or EViews).


Oxford Economics is an equal opportunity employer that is committed to diversity and inclusion in the workplace. We prohibit discrimination and harassment of any kind based on race, color, sex, religion, sexual orientation, national origin, disability, genetic information, pregnancy, or any other protected characteristic as outlined by federal, state, or local laws.


About Oxford Economics

Oxford Economics was founded in 1981 as a commercial venture with Oxford University’s business college to provide economic forecasting and modelling to UK companies and financial institutions expanding abroad. Since then, we have become one of the world’s foremost independent global advisory firms, providing reports, forecasts and analytical tools on more than 200 countries, 250 industrial sectors, and 7,000 cities and regions. Our best-of-class global economic and industry models and analytical tools give us an unparalleled ability to forecast external market trends and assess their economic, social and business impact.


Headquartered in Oxford, England, with regional centres in London, New York, and Singapore, Oxford Economics has offices across the globe in more than 15 cities. We employ more than 400 professional economists, industry experts and business editors—one of the largest teams of macroeconomists and thought leadership specialists. Our global team is highly skilled in a full range of research techniques and thought leadership capabilities, from econometric modelling, scenario framing, and economic impact analysis to market surveys, case studies, expert panels, and web analytics.

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