Economist- Futures Analysis

**Details**:
**Reference number**:

- 358583**Salary**:

- £39,384 - £46,715- A Civil Service Pension with an average employer contribution of 27%**Job grade**:

- Senior Executive Officer**Contract type**:

- Permanent**Business area**:

- DBT DGSI - Chief Scientific Adviser**Type of role**:

- Analytical
- Economist
- Policy**Working pattern**:

- Flexible working, Full-time, Job share, Part-time**Number of jobs available**:

- 1Contents

Location

About the job

**Benefits**:
Things you need to know

Location
- Belfast, Birmingham, Cardiff, Darlington, Edinburgh, London, SalfordAbout the job

**Job summary**:
The Department for Business and Trade (DBT) is the department for economic growth. We support businesses to invest, grow and export, creating jobs and opportunities across the country. We operate in an increasingly dynamic international environment, with a range of forces rapidly reshaping the global economy. For the UK to navigate this environment successfully, we need to understand how the world is changing.

The role is based in the Futures Analysis Team, a small and friendly team that sits in the Global Futures Directorate (GFD), led by the Chief Scientific Advisor. GFD sits within the ‘strategic centre’ of the department and works to ensure that DBT’s strategic decision-making is underpinned by a clear-eyed view of the future. That includes specific responsibility to lead and cohere DBT’s approach to long-term government priorities around science, technology and climate change, and a broader responsibility for strengthening DBT’s long-term evidence base and building scenario analysis, stress-testing and horizon scanning capacity.

As an economist in the Futures Analysis Team, you will conduct quantitative analysis on the future of the global economy and its impact on the UK, as well as gather insights from multiple data sources to help inform strategic choices facing DBT.

The potential scope of the Futures Analysis team’s work is broad and flexible, but a key component will include analysis of the long-term economic, societal, technological, and environmental trends and how they will shape the UK’s economic prospects over the next 30 years. You will be involved in a diverse range of projects - from long-term forecasting of global GDP growth to deep dives on specific issues such as how to reinvigorate productivity growth in the UK’s top sectors - all linked by a common theme of delivering on the Department’s priorities. We aspire to publication-quality analysis, with an emphasis on innovation. An example of the team’s published work is DBT’s Global Trade Outlook (available on GOV.UK).

**Job description**:
We are looking for an analyst with experience working as a professional economist, able to effectively respond to changing priorities, and who enjoys working independently as well as co-delivering with others.

With close links to both DBT’s Strategy and Analysis functions, the technical depth of our work varies, from complex macro modelling and time series econometrics, to data visualisation. That is allied with an understanding of the big picture and how such approaches can be used to tackle strategic questions. As such, we are open to a diverse set of analytical skills that will complement the rest of the team - which boasts a mix of experience from around the Civil Service and the private sector.

As a civil servant and a member of the Government Economic Service (GES), you will have the opportunity to develop a wide range of personal and professional skills.

Quantitative Analysis - You will use your economic knowledge and analytical experience to project how the global economy and trade are likely to evolve over the coming decades and what that means for the UK. This will include analysing how certain risks and scenarios could lead to different future outcomes. You will use your analysis to shed light on policy issues and strategic choices facing DBT.

Strategic thinking - A key part of your role will be developing knowledge on DBT’s policy priorities, and identifying how Departmental strategies could be improved using long-term thinking. This will include working on a range of business and trade issues focused on specific geographies, sectors, or issues.

Clear communications - You will enjoy converting your analytical insights into engaging reports and presentations that have practical relevance for your audience. You will be an articulate writer and have an eye for producing engaging graphics and charts. You will also be skilled at drawing out ‘killer facts’ that will grab the attention of your readers.

**Person specification**:
**Essential Criteria**
- Minimum 2:1 undergraduate degree in economics or other quantitative analytical disciplines with a strong economics component (e.g. operational research etc.)
- Experience of using large datasets and multiple data sources to draw insightful analytical conclusions

**Desirable Criteria**
- Time series an